ATP tennis predict — Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien

Grand Slam Hard US Open · R16 22:00

Predicted probability

Karen Khachanov

Russia

33.12%

Learner Tien

USA

66.88%

Average Odds

2.40 / 1.57

Market probability

39.55% / 60.45%

Why This Prediction?

Learner Tien is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1910 vs 1801), a stronger return game (39.4% vs 35.1% of return points won) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1800.9 Elo 1910.0

1791.0 Elo (surface) 1799.9

345 Wins 80

220 Wins (surface) 62

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.955 Dominance ratio 0.986

50 Rank 15

30.3 Age 20.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Karen Khachanov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Learner Tien

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Karen Khachanov Learner Tien

1st Serve In %

57.3%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.0%

43.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.9%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.6%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

59.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Karen Khachanov Learner Tien

Break Points Saved %

64.8%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.1%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

33.7%

40.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Karen Khachanov 0 – 0 Learner Tien

Hard US Open · 2026-09-07

R16

Karen Khachanov #50

Learner Tien #15

7-5 4-6 6-7 6-1 6-4

9 Aces 8

7 Double Faults 8

168 Service Points 155

105 First Serve In 93

77 First Serve Won 66

28 Second Serve Won 28

9 Break Points Saved 3

14 Break Points Faced 12

48 Winners 55

56 Unforced Errors 55

2.4 Average Odds 1.6

Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien — Prediction