ATP tennis predict — Karen Khachanov vs Felix Auger Aliassime

ATP Hard Beijing · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Karen Khachanov

Russia

44.07%

Felix Auger Aliassime

Canada

55.93%

Average Odds

2.26 / 1.62

Market probability

41.75% / 58.25%

Why This Prediction?

Felix Auger Aliassime is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2049 vs 1918), a higher Elo rating (2099 vs 1981) and a stronger serve (67.2% vs 63.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1980.6 Elo 2098.9

1917.6 Elo (surface) 2049.2

347 Wins 14

222 Wins (surface) 3

8 Last 15 form 10

3 Head-to-head wins 2

0.970 Dominance ratio 1.082

26 Rank 5

30.4 Age 26.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Karen Khachanov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Felix Auger Aliassime

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Karen Khachanov Felix Auger Aliassime

1st Serve In %

57.3%

64.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

77.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.0%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.9%

27.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

49.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.80

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.6%

67.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

74.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Karen Khachanov Felix Auger Aliassime

Break Points Saved %

64.8%

58.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

37.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.1%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

33.7%

52.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Karen Khachanov 3 – 2 Felix Auger Aliassime

Hard US Open · 2026-09-03

2. round

Karen Khachanov #50

Felix Auger Aliassime #4

6-7 6-3 6-2 6-2

12 Aces 12

9 Double Faults 4

116 Service Points 123

67 First Serve In 61

45 First Serve Won 47

20 Second Serve Won 38

13 Break Points Saved 7

20 Break Points Faced 9

43 Winners 37

47 Unforced Errors 30

3.3 Average Odds 1.3

Grass Halle · 2025-06-16

R16

Karen Khachanov #22

Felix Auger Aliassime #27

6-3 1-6 6-3

4 Aces 12

2 Double Faults 3

68 Service Points 63

45 First Serve In 39

31 First Serve Won 30

13 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass s Hertogenbosch · 2022-06-06

QF

Felix Auger Aliassime #9

Karen Khachanov #23

7-6(5) 6-4

8 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 2

66 Service Points 76

39 First Serve In 48

33 First Serve Won 34

15 Second Serve Won 15

2 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2021-08-16

R32

Felix Auger Aliassime #17

Karen Khachanov #30

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4

14 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 7

79 Service Points 132

48 First Serve In 75

43 First Serve Won 50

21 Second Serve Won 30

1 Break Points Saved 10

1 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Canada Masters · 2019-08-05

R16

Karen Khachanov #8

Felix Auger Aliassime #21

6-7(7) 7-5 6-3

11 Aces 11

3 Double Faults 12

106 Service Points 108

63 First Serve In 57

45 First Serve Won 40

21 Second Serve Won 23

7 Break Points Saved 5

12 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Karen Khachanov vs Felix Auger Aliassime — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Karen Khachanov — Last 10

Felix Auger Aliassime — Last 10