ATP tennis predict — Karen Khachanov vs Benjamin Bonzi

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 3. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Karen Khachanov

Russia

61.90%

Benjamin Bonzi

France

38.10%

Average Odds

1.45 / 2.72

Market probability

65.23% / 34.77%

Why This Prediction?

Karen Khachanov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1784 vs 1627), a stronger serve (64.4% vs 61.8% of service points won) and a better head-to-head record against Benjamin Bonzi (2-0).

Player Comparison

1790.0 Elo 1821.1

1784.1 Elo (surface) 1626.8

344 Wins 105

219 Wins (surface) 65

8 Last 15 form 10

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.935 Dominance ratio 0.979

50 Rank 97

30.3 Age 30.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Karen Khachanov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Benjamin Bonzi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Karen Khachanov Benjamin Bonzi

1st Serve In %

57.3%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.0%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.9%

24.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.6%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

49.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Karen Khachanov Benjamin Bonzi

Break Points Saved %

64.8%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

38.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.1%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.7%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Karen Khachanov 2 – 0 Benjamin Bonzi

Hard US Open · 2026-09-05

3. round

Karen Khachanov #50

Benjamin Bonzi #97

6-3 6-2 6-4

12 Aces 6

5 Double Faults 7

94 Service Points 82

56 First Serve In 43

44 First Serve Won 33

19 Second Serve Won 13

3 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 10

28 Winners 31

20 Unforced Errors 41

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Hard Australian Open · 2022-01-17

R64

Karen Khachanov #30

Benjamin Bonzi #63

6-4 6-0 7-5

19 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 4

93 Service Points 102

67 First Serve In 59

47 First Serve Won 38

14 Second Serve Won 17

3 Break Points Saved 7

4 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Lyon · 2021-05-17

R32

Karen Khachanov #26

Benjamin Bonzi #115

6-1 4-6 7-6(4)

7 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 2

99 Service Points 116

65 First Serve In 70

45 First Serve Won 48

18 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 8

3 Break Points Faced 12