ATP tennis predict — Karen Khachanov vs Adrian Mannarino

ATP Hard Shanghai · 3. round 06:00

Predicted probability

Karen Khachanov

Russia

76.31%

Adrian Mannarino

France

23.69%

Average Odds

1.30 / 3.47

Market probability

72.75% / 27.25%

Why This Prediction?

Karen Khachanov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2000 vs 1842), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1936 vs 1810) and a stronger serve (63.2% vs 60.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2000.1 Elo 1841.9

1936.4 Elo (surface) 1810.5

350 Wins 418

225 Wins (surface) 286

9 Last 15 form 7

5 Head-to-head wins 1

0.970 Dominance ratio 0.898

27 Rank 83

30.4 Age 38.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Karen Khachanov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Adrian Mannarino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–6L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Karen Khachanov Adrian Mannarino

1st Serve In %

60.5%

53.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.1%

73.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.8%

42.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.5%

23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.6%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Karen Khachanov Adrian Mannarino

Break Points Saved %

56.1%

65.2%

Break Points Converted %

47.4%

43.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.1%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

33.7%

47.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Karen Khachanov 5 – 1 Adrian Mannarino

Hard Australian Open · 2025-01-13

R128

Karen Khachanov #19

Adrian Mannarino #75

7-6(5) 6-3 6-3

6 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 7

81 Service Points 106

53 First Serve In 47

44 First Serve Won 30

14 Second Serve Won 26

1 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard St. Petersburg · 2021-10-25

R32

Karen Khachanov #30

Adrian Mannarino #50

6-3 6-3

5 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 9

43 Service Points 84

23 First Serve In 43

19 First Serve Won 31

17 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 13

0 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Moscow · 2018-10-15

F

Karen Khachanov #26

Adrian Mannarino #49

6-2 6-2

6 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 2

46 Service Points 43

36 First Serve In 30

27 First Serve Won 22

8 Second Serve Won 2

1 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2017-01-16

R128

Karen Khachanov #52

Adrian Mannarino #61

6-4 3-6 7-6(9) 6-3

32 Aces 8

4 Double Faults 1

126 Service Points 142

76 First Serve In 91

66 First Serve Won 65

25 Second Serve Won 29

5 Break Points Saved 7

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Chengdu · 2016-09-26

R16

Karen Khachanov #101

Adrian Mannarino #62

3-6 6-3 6-1

8 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 8

66 Service Points 82

38 First Serve In 39

31 First Serve Won 22

16 Second Serve Won 22

2 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Mouilleron Le Captif CH · 2015-11-09

QF

Adrian Mannarino #44

Karen Khachanov #156

2-6 6-2 7-5

3 Aces 8

2 Double Faults 2

86 Service Points 76

60 First Serve In 54

44 First Serve Won 43

12 Second Serve Won 8

6 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Karen Khachanov vs Adrian Mannarino — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Karen Khachanov — Last 10

Adrian Mannarino — Last 10