ATP tennis predict — Kamil Majchrzak vs Tommy Paul

ATP Hard Washington · 1. round

Predicted probability

Kamil Majchrzak

Poland

27.10%

Tommy Paul

USA

72.90%

Average Odds

3.83 / 1.26

Market probability

24.75% / 75.25%

Why This Prediction?

Tommy Paul is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1909 vs 1766), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1772 vs 1694) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1766.3 Elo 1908.9

1693.8 Elo (surface) 1771.7

105 Wins 281

65 Wins (surface) 188

9 Last 15 form 12

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.055 Dominance ratio 0.931

72 Rank 21

30.5 Age 29.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kamil Majchrzak

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Tommy Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kamil Majchrzak Tommy Paul

1st Serve In %

59.0%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.5%

45.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.74

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.7%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

74.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kamil Majchrzak Tommy Paul

Break Points Saved %

58.8%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

31.3%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.9%

62.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kamil Majchrzak 1 – 1 Tommy Paul

Hard Washington · 2026-07-28

1. round

Kamil Majchrzak #72

Tommy Paul #21

7-5 7-6

8 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 4

68 Service Points 91

37 First Serve In 50

28 First Serve Won 39

22 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 9

1 Break Points Faced 11

18 Winners 26

35 Unforced Errors 48

3.8 Average Odds 1.3

Hard Atlanta · 2019-07-22

Q2

Kamil Majchrzak #102

Tommy Paul #128

7-6(5) 6-4

3 Aces 6

7 Double Faults 4

77 Service Points 79

38 First Serve In 48

29 First Serve Won 34

21 Second Serve Won 16

0 Break Points Saved 7

1 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Charlottesville CH · 2018-10-29

R16

Tommy Paul #277

Kamil Majchrzak #204

6-2 6-1

7 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 2

52 Service Points 45

30 First Serve In 28

22 First Serve Won 16

13 Second Serve Won 5

5 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 6