ATP tennis predict — Kaito Uesugi vs Yosuke Watanuki

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · qualification - round of 16 08:30

Predicted probability

Kaito Uesugi

Japan

11.56%

Yosuke Watanuki

Japan

88.44%

Average Odds

7.78 / 1.06

Market probability

11.99% / 88.01%

Why This Prediction?

Yosuke Watanuki is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1675 vs 1382), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1665 vs 1356) and more wins on hard courts (143 vs 24).

Player Comparison

1382.1 Elo 1675.2

1356.3 Elo (surface) 1665.2

25 Wins (Challenger) 157

24 Wins (surface) 143

4 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.952 Dominance ratio 1.155

1521 Rank 406

31.4 Age 28.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kaito Uesugi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Yosuke Watanuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kaito Uesugi Yosuke Watanuki

1st Serve In %

58.5%

50.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.7%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.9%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.1%

30.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.1%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.2%

54.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

74.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.2%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.7%

33.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

53.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.72

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kaito Uesugi Yosuke Watanuki

Break Points Saved %

42.9%

44.4%

Break Points Converted %

20.0%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

66.1%

Break Points Converted %

34.3%

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kaito Uesugi and Yosuke Watanuki have never played each other.

Kaito Uesugi vs Yosuke Watanuki — Prediction