ATP tennis predict — Kaichi Uchida vs Rio Noguchi

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Kaichi Uchida

Japan

17.00%

Rio Noguchi

Japan

83.00%

Average Odds

4.50 / 1.18

Market probability

20.77% / 79.23%

Why This Prediction?

Rio Noguchi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1655 vs 1480), a higher Elo rating (1670 vs 1463) and a stronger return game (46.5% vs 35.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1463.0 Elo 1670.5

1479.8 Elo (surface) 1654.6

165 Wins (Challenger) 129

136 Wins (surface) 118

1 Last 15 form 8

2 Head-to-head wins 3

0.791 Dominance ratio 1.205

277 Rank 219

32.1 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kaichi Uchida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kaichi Uchida Rio Noguchi

1st Serve In %

62.3%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

61.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

60.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.9%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.0%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

64.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kaichi Uchida Rio Noguchi

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

33.9%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

46.8%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%

45.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kaichi Uchida 2 – 3 Rio Noguchi

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-14

1. round

Rio Noguchi #229

Kaichi Uchida #310

3-6 6-2 6-3

9 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

32 First Serve Won 43

20 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.5

Hard Shenzhen Futian CH · 2025-10-13

R32

Kaichi Uchida #368

Rio Noguchi #246

5-7 6-4 6-3

11 Aces 11

3 Double Faults 3

79 Service Points 88

50 First Serve In 49

40 First Serve Won 42

16 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Zhangjiagang CH · 2025-08-25

R16

Kaichi Uchida #579

Rio Noguchi #219

6-1 7-6(4)

10 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 0

57 Service Points 61

28 First Serve In 34

25 First Serve Won 25

20 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Chicago CH · 2024-07-22

Q1

Rio Noguchi #321

Kaichi Uchida #373

6-0 6-1

0 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 4

55 Service Points 41

36 First Serve In 20

26 First Serve Won 10

11 Second Serve Won 6

5 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Nonthaburi 2 CH · 2024-01-08

R32

Rio Noguchi #365

Kaichi Uchida #305

5-7 6-2 7-6(1)

4 Aces 12

3 Double Faults 2

97 Service Points 103

61 First Serve In 64

44 First Serve Won 44

24 Second Serve Won 18

5 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Nonthaburi 1 CH · 2024-01-01

Q2

Rio Noguchi #379

Kaichi Uchida #307

6-7(4) 6-1 6-2

6 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 5

78 Service Points 94

42 First Serve In 56

34 First Serve Won 39

22 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 11

3 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Kaichi Uchida vs Rio Noguchi — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Kaichi Uchida — Last 10

Rio Noguchi — Last 10