ATP tennis predict — Kaichi Uchida vs Federico Cina

ATP Hard Chengdu · qualification - round of 16 10:00

Predicted probability

Kaichi Uchida

Japan

16.18%

Federico Cina

Italy

83.82%

Average Odds

7.90 / 1.07

Market probability

11.93% / 88.07%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Cina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1742 vs 1458), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1724 vs 1473) and a stronger serve (64.4% vs 61.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1457.9 Elo 1741.6

1473.3 Elo (surface) 1723.5

8 Wins 13

4 Wins (surface) 6

3 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.925 Dominance ratio 1.066

331 Rank 170

32.1 Age 19.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Kaichi Uchida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Federico Cina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kaichi Uchida Federico Cina

1st Serve In %

62.3%

57.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

73.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.9%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.0%

33.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Kaichi Uchida Federico Cina

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

52.2%

Break Points Converted %

33.9%

39.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

46.8%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Kaichi Uchida 0 – 0 Federico Cina

Hard Chengdu · 2026-09-22

qualification - round of 16

Federico Cina #170

Kaichi Uchida #331

6-1 6-2

5 Aces 8

5 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

17 First Serve Won 29

8 Second Serve Won 10

5 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 7.9

Kaichi Uchida vs Federico Cina — Prediction