ATP tennis predict — Justin Boulais vs Matisse Bobichon

Challenger Hard Cassis challenger · qualification - round of 16 11:30

Predicted probability

Justin Boulais

Canada

73.92%

Matisse Bobichon

France

26.08%

Average Odds

1.26 / 3.53

Market probability

73.70% / 26.30%

Why This Prediction?

Justin Boulais is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1537 vs 1382), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1526 vs 1391) and a stronger serve (62.8% vs 62.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1537.3 Elo 1382.5

1525.8 Elo (surface) 1391.0

46 Wins (Challenger) 8

46 Wins (surface) 8

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.007 Dominance ratio 0.957

403 Rank 639

24.9 Age 24.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Justin Boulais

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Matisse Bobichon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Justin Boulais Matisse Bobichon

1st Serve In %

56.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

60.0%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.6%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.33

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.56

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.2%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.2%

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

39.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Justin Boulais Matisse Bobichon

Break Points Saved %

57.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

16.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Justin Boulais 0 – 0 Matisse Bobichon

Hard Rennes challenger · 2026-09-14

qualification - round of 16

Matisse Bobichon #605

Justin Boulais #403

7-6 6-3

2 Aces 8

0 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

29 First Serve Won 37

10 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Cassis challenger · 2026-09-07

qualification - round of 16

Matisse Bobichon #639

Justin Boulais #403

3-6 7-6 6-3

4 Aces 5

10 Double Faults 8

106 Service Points 91

58 First Serve In 56

37 First Serve Won 40

26 Second Serve Won 19

5 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.5 Average Odds 1.3

Justin Boulais vs Matisse Bobichon — Prediction