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Jurij Rodionov vs Rei Sakamoto — Prediction

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · 1. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Jurij Rodionov

Austria

44.79%

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

55.21%

Average Odds

2.08  /  1.63

Market probability

43.94%  /  56.06%

Why This Prediction?

Rei Sakamoto is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (72.2% vs 62.9% of service points won), a better head-to-head record against Jurij Rodionov (2-1) and fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.12).

Player Comparison

1657.4 Elo 1660.7
1708.4 Elo (surface) 1574.5
237 Wins (Challenger) 60
164 Wins (surface) 50
9 Last 15 form 10
1 Head-to-head wins 2
1.006 Dominance ratio 1.134
134 Rank 165
27.3 Age 20.2
left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jurij Rodionov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jurij Rodionov Rei Sakamoto

1st Serve In %

59.4%
60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%
76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%
51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%
21.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.2%
46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.61
0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26
0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%
58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%
75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%
54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%
25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%
40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.43
0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24
0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jurij Rodionov Rei Sakamoto

Break Points Saved %

64.9%
57.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%
34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%
60.4%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%
45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jurij Rodionov 1 – 2 Rei Sakamoto

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-18

1. round

Rei Sakamoto #165

Jurij Rodionov #134

6-1 6-4
3 Aces 3
5 Double Faults 2
62 Service Points 59
28 First Serve In 43
19 First Serve Won 32
15 Second Serve Won 8
8 Break Points Saved 2
11 Break Points Faced 2
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.6 Average Odds 2.1
Hard Yokohama CH · 2024-11-18

R32

Rei Sakamoto #769

Jurij Rodionov #177

6-2 6-4
3 Aces 0
0 Double Faults 3
52 Service Points 62
34 First Serve In 36
25 First Serve Won 24
13 Second Serve Won 11
2 Break Points Saved 1
2 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Kobe CH · 2024-11-11

R32

Jurij Rodionov #197

Rei Sakamoto #799

6-3 6-2
1 Aces 5
6 Double Faults 2
55 Service Points 48
31 First Serve In 30
26 First Serve Won 20
15 Second Serve Won 8
3 Break Points Saved 1
3 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Yokkaichi CH · 2023-11-27

R32

Rei Sakamoto #1183

Jurij Rodionov #111

6-4 6-4
7 Aces 1
1 Double Faults 7
55 Service Points 66
27 First Serve In 43
22 First Serve Won 29
17 Second Serve Won 8
1 Break Points Saved 4
2 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Jurij Rodionov — Last 10

L W L W W W W L L W

Rei Sakamoto — Last 10

L L W W W W L W L W