ATP tennis predict — Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 19:00

Predicted probability

Jurij Rodionov

Austria

67.05%

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

France

32.95%

Average Odds

1.98 / 1.83

Market probability

48.03% / 51.97%

Why This Prediction?

Jurij Rodionov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1683 vs 1623), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1725 vs 1653) and a stronger return game (34.9% vs 32.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1683.1 Elo 1622.7

1724.8 Elo (surface) 1652.9

68 Wins 63

29 Wins (surface) 38

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.946 Dominance ratio 1.092

143 Rank 105

27.3 Age 23.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jurij Rodionov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jurij Rodionov Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

1st Serve In %

59.4%

70.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

20.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.2%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

80.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

46.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.88

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jurij Rodionov Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Break Points Saved %

64.9%

65.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

37.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

72.5%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jurij Rodionov 0 – 0 Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Jurij Rodionov #143

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard #105

7-6 6-0 7-6

8 Aces 10

0 Double Faults 7

98 Service Points 105

62 First Serve In 64

50 First Serve Won 49

22 Second Serve Won 16

3 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 9

33 Winners 35

18 Unforced Errors 36

2.0 Average Odds 1.8

Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard — Prediction