ATP tennis predict — Jurij Rodionov vs Andrey Chepelev

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Jurij Rodionov

Austria

74.75%

Andrey Chepelev

Russia

25.25%

Average Odds

1.21 / 4.06

Market probability

77.04% / 22.96%

Why This Prediction?

Jurij Rodionov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1643 vs 1460), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1522 vs 1467) and a stronger serve (64.4% vs 56.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1643.2 Elo 1459.6

1521.5 Elo (surface) 1467.5

62 Wins 0

27 Wins (surface) 0

6 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.841 Dominance ratio 0.566

143 Rank 353

27.2 Age 28.0

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jurij Rodionov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Andrey Chepelev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jurij Rodionov Andrey Chepelev

1st Serve In %

59.4%

67.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

50.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.2%

29.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

67.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

39.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

56.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jurij Rodionov Andrey Chepelev

Break Points Saved %

64.9%

30.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

20.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

44.6%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%

38.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jurij Rodionov 0 – 0 Andrey Chepelev

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-18

qualification - round of 16

Jurij Rodionov #143

Andrey Chepelev #353

6-2 6-2

9 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 3

42 Service Points 46

25 First Serve In 29

20 First Serve Won 16

13 Second Serve Won 8

0 Break Points Saved 0

0 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.1

Jurij Rodionov vs Andrey Chepelev — Prediction