ATP tennis predict — Juncheng Shang vs Sebastian Baez

ATP Hard Beijing · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Juncheng Shang

China

50.98%

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

49.02%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.11

Market probability

55.24% / 44.76%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1830.3 Elo 1894.2

1741.9 Elo (surface) 1815.8

67 Wins 148

54 Wins (surface) 41

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.816 Dominance ratio 0.760

250 Rank 51

21.6 Age 25.8

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juncheng Shang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juncheng Shang Sebastian Baez

1st Serve In %

58.8%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.5%

59.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.2%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.4%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.1%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.4%

38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.3%

57.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juncheng Shang Sebastian Baez

Break Points Saved %

63.4%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juncheng Shang and Sebastian Baez have never played each other.

Juncheng Shang vs Sebastian Baez — Prediction