ATP tennis predict — Juncheng Shang vs Marco Trungelliti

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Juncheng Shang

China

70.22%

Marco Trungelliti

Argentina

29.78%

Average Odds

1.46 / 2.72

Market probability

65.07% / 34.93%

Why This Prediction?

Juncheng Shang is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1660 vs 1533), fewer double faults per game (0.10 vs 0.19) and a higher Elo rating (1701 vs 1679).

Player Comparison

1701.1 Elo 1679.3

1660.2 Elo (surface) 1533.0

67 Wins 131

54 Wins (surface) 48

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.824 Dominance ratio 0.946

228 Rank 83

21.6 Age 36.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juncheng Shang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Marco Trungelliti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juncheng Shang Marco Trungelliti

1st Serve In %

59.1%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.1%

66.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.4%

38.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.3%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juncheng Shang Marco Trungelliti

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

61.5%

Break Points Converted %

51.2%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

63.8%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

35.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juncheng Shang 0 – 0 Marco Trungelliti

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Marco Trungelliti #83

Juncheng Shang #228

0-6 7-6 1-6 6-3 6-4

11 Aces 10

6 Double Faults 5

132 Service Points 139

68 First Serve In 73

51 First Serve Won 44

32 Second Serve Won 37

3 Break Points Saved 12

7 Break Points Faced 19

45 Winners 38

51 Unforced Errors 49

2.7 Average Odds 1.5

Juncheng Shang vs Marco Trungelliti — Prediction