ATP tennis predict — Juncheng Shang vs Lorenzo Sonego

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Juncheng Shang

China

59.40%

Lorenzo Sonego

Italy

40.60%

Average Odds

1.58 / 2.36

Market probability

59.90% / 40.10%

Why This Prediction?

Juncheng Shang is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1682 vs 1568) and fewer double faults per game (0.05 vs 0.14).

Player Comparison

1714.8 Elo 1737.0

1682.4 Elo (surface) 1568.2

67 Wins 213

54 Wins (surface) 109

7 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 1

0.791 Dominance ratio 1.027

281 Rank 88

21.5 Age 31.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juncheng Shang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Lorenzo Sonego

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juncheng Shang Lorenzo Sonego

1st Serve In %

59.1%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

59.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.1%

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.4%

34.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.3%

54.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juncheng Shang Lorenzo Sonego

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

66.1%

Break Points Converted %

51.2%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

58.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juncheng Shang 1 – 1 Lorenzo Sonego

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-14

1. round

Lorenzo Sonego #88

Juncheng Shang #281

6-3 6-3

1 Aces 7

5 Double Faults 2

54 Service Points 60

25 First Serve In 39

14 First Serve Won 28

15 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 3

12 Winners 19

27 Unforced Errors 26

2.4 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Hong Kong · 2026-01-05

R16

Juncheng Shang #406

Lorenzo Sonego #39

6-3 6-4

7 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 2

70 Service Points 44

49 First Serve In 33

38 First Serve Won 24

11 Second Serve Won 7

5 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Winston-Salem · 2024-08-19

R16

Lorenzo Sonego #58

Juncheng Shang #77

W/O

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -