ATP tennis predict — Juncheng Shang vs Andrey Rublev

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round

Predicted probability

Juncheng Shang

China

30.56%

Andrey Rublev

Russia

69.44%

Average Odds

3.64 / 1.28

Market probability

26.02% / 73.98%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1803 vs 1687), a higher Elo rating (1845 vs 1708) and a stronger serve (72.4% vs 63.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1707.5 Elo 1845.1

1686.9 Elo (surface) 1802.8

66 Wins 436

53 Wins (surface) 289

7 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.754 Dominance ratio 1.446

281 Rank 16

21.5 Age 28.8

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juncheng Shang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juncheng Shang Andrey Rublev

1st Serve In %

59.1%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.1%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.4%

35.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.3%

55.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juncheng Shang Andrey Rublev

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

51.2%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juncheng Shang 0 – 1 Andrey Rublev

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

2. round

Juncheng Shang #281

Andrey Rublev #16

7-5 4-6 7-6

5 Aces 12

3 Double Faults 8

126 Service Points 111

76 First Serve In 60

43 First Serve Won 41

36 Second Serve Won 26

11 Break Points Saved 3

15 Break Points Faced 7

28 Winners 34

47 Unforced Errors 68

3.6 Average Odds 1.3

Hard Hong Kong · 2024-01-01

SF

Andrey Rublev #5

Juncheng Shang #183

4-6 6-2 6-3

12 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 3

98 Service Points 78

55 First Serve In 45

38 First Serve Won 27

29 Second Serve Won 19

13 Break Points Saved 5

14 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Juncheng Shang vs Andrey Rublev — Prediction