ATP tennis predict — Juncheng Shang vs Adrian Mannarino

ATP Hard Chengdu · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Juncheng Shang

China

67.23%

Adrian Mannarino

France

32.77%

Average Odds

1.38 / 3.00

Market probability

68.49% / 31.51%

Why This Prediction?

Juncheng Shang is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1847 vs 1807), the advantage of playing in his home country and fewer double faults per game (0.05 vs 0.09).

Player Comparison

1846.6 Elo 1806.9

1757.8 Elo (surface) 1776.0

67 Wins 413

54 Wins (surface) 281

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.816 Dominance ratio 0.898

253 Rank 78

21.6 Age 38.2

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juncheng Shang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Adrian Mannarino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juncheng Shang Adrian Mannarino

1st Serve In %

59.1%

54.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.1%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.4%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.3%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juncheng Shang Adrian Mannarino

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

51.2%

35.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

47.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juncheng Shang 0 – 1 Adrian Mannarino

Hard Miami Masters · 2023-03-20

R128

Adrian Mannarino #62

Juncheng Shang #181

1-6 6-4 6-2

9 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 2

70 Service Points 75

41 First Serve In 49

29 First Serve Won 31

16 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 9

5 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Juncheng Shang vs Adrian Mannarino — Prediction