ATP tennis predict — Juan Pablo Varillas vs Timofey Skatov

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

48.05%

Timofey Skatov

Kazakhstan

51.95%

Average Odds

2.59 / 1.46

Market probability

36.05% / 63.95%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1656.5 Elo 1657.8

1675.6 Elo (surface) 1679.0

216 Wins (Challenger) 145

213 Wins (surface) 126

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.926 Dominance ratio 1.163

274 Rank 150

30.8 Age 25.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Timofey Skatov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Pablo Varillas Timofey Skatov

1st Serve In %

56.6%

67.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.7%

64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.6%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Pablo Varillas Timofey Skatov

Break Points Saved %

69.0%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.1%

46.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Pablo Varillas 0 – 0 Timofey Skatov

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-31

QF

Juan Pablo Varillas #274

Timofey Skatov #150

6-4 6-4

6 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 3

71 Service Points 66

41 First Serve In 39

26 First Serve Won 20

13 Second Serve Won 11

5 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.5

Juan Pablo Varillas vs Timofey Skatov — Prediction