ATP tennis predict
← Back to Predictions

Juan Pablo Varillas vs Thiago Seyboth Wild — Prediction

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · QF 20:30

Predicted probability

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

38.11%

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Brazil

61.89%

Average Odds

2.63  /  1.44

Market probability

35.38%  /  64.62%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Seyboth Wild is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1755 vs 1720), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1764 vs 1738) and a stronger serve (64.0% vs 60.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1720.2 Elo 1754.8
1738.2 Elo (surface) 1764.4
223 Wins (Challenger) 160
220 Wins (surface) 147
12 Last 15 form 11
4 Head-to-head wins 1
0.934 Dominance ratio 0.953
234 Rank 198
30.9 Age 26.5
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–2L · 84.6%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Pablo Varillas Thiago Seyboth Wild

1st Serve In %

56.6%
64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%
70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%
54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%
23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%
49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.28
0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16
0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.7%
61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%
71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%
55.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%
30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.6%
42.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.47
0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19
0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Pablo Varillas Thiago Seyboth Wild

Break Points Saved %

69.0%
59.1%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%
33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.1%
61.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%
29.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Pablo Varillas 4 – 1 Thiago Seyboth Wild

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-11

QF

Thiago Seyboth Wild #198

Juan Pablo Varillas #234

6-1 7-6
6 Aces 12
0 Double Faults 1
- Service Points -
- First Serve In -
22 First Serve Won 34
14 Second Serve Won 14
2 Break Points Saved 3
5 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.4 Average Odds 2.6
Clay Como challenger · 2026-09-04

QF

Juan Pablo Varillas #234

Thiago Seyboth Wild #198

4-6 7-6 4-3
10 Aces 11
3 Double Faults 1
99 Service Points 120
55 First Serve In 76
39 First Serve Won 53
25 Second Serve Won 21
5 Break Points Saved 13
8 Break Points Faced 17
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
3.0 Average Odds 1.4
Clay Sao Leopoldo CH · 2022-11-14

SF

Juan Pablo Varillas #119

Thiago Seyboth Wild #404

6-4 6-2
1 Aces 0
0 Double Faults 4
68 Service Points 56
38 First Serve In 27
25 First Serve Won 18
15 Second Serve Won 10
7 Break Points Saved 3
9 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Cordoba · 2020-02-03

Q1

Juan Pablo Varillas #139

Thiago Seyboth Wild #207

6-2 7-6(4)
3 Aces 4
2 Double Faults 5
68 Service Points 86
43 First Serve In 35
37 First Serve Won 28
13 Second Serve Won 24
4 Break Points Saved 8
4 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Guayaquil CH · 2019-10-28

SF

Thiago Seyboth Wild #311

Juan Pablo Varillas #155

6-4 7-5
5 Aces 2
1 Double Faults 4
60 Service Points 79
37 First Serve In 45
32 First Serve Won 32
12 Second Serve Won 14
2 Break Points Saved 5
3 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Lima CH · 2019-10-21

QF

Juan Pablo Varillas #161

Thiago Seyboth Wild #342

7-5 7-5
1 Aces 6
2 Double Faults 2
69 Service Points 66
42 First Serve In 45
34 First Serve Won 32
15 Second Serve Won 10
3 Break Points Saved 2
4 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Juan Pablo Varillas — Last 10

W W L W W L W W W W

Thiago Seyboth Wild — Last 10

W W W W W L W W L W