ATP tennis predict — Juan Pablo Varillas vs Jay Clarke

Challenger Clay Como challenger · SF 16:00

Predicted probability

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

68.60%

Jay Clarke

Great Britain

31.40%

Average Odds

1.81 / 1.92

Market probability

51.47% / 48.53%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Pablo Varillas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1677 vs 1586), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1711 vs 1632) and more wins on clay courts (217 vs 57).

Player Comparison

1677.5 Elo 1585.9

1711.3 Elo (surface) 1631.9

220 Wins (Challenger) 159

217 Wins (surface) 57

12 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.924 Dominance ratio 0.873

234 Rank 242

30.9 Age 28.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Jay Clarke

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Pablo Varillas Jay Clarke

1st Serve In %

56.6%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.7%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

62.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.6%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Pablo Varillas Jay Clarke

Break Points Saved %

69.0%

63.7%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.1%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

44.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Pablo Varillas 0 – 0 Jay Clarke

Clay Como challenger · 2026-09-05

SF

Juan Pablo Varillas #234

Jay Clarke #242

6-7 7-5 6-1

1 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 4

95 Service Points 117

61 First Serve In 72

43 First Serve Won 44

18 Second Serve Won 19

3 Break Points Saved 9

6 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Juan Pablo Varillas vs Jay Clarke — Prediction