ATP tennis predict — Juan Pablo Varillas vs Jan Kumstat

Challenger Clay Como challenger · 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

26.37%

Jan Kumstat

Czech Republic

73.63%

Average Odds

3.51 / 1.27

Market probability

26.57% / 73.43%

Why This Prediction?

Jan Kumstat is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1934 vs 1643), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1967 vs 1676) and a stronger serve (62.9% vs 60.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1643.2 Elo 1933.6

1676.0 Elo (surface) 1967.4

217 Wins (Challenger) 30

214 Wins (surface) 25

10 Last 15 form 15

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.920 Dominance ratio 0.918

234 Rank 186

30.9 Age 19.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Jan Kumstat

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 15W–1L · 93.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Pablo Varillas Jan Kumstat

1st Serve In %

56.6%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.28

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.7%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

52.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

23.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.6%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Pablo Varillas Jan Kumstat

Break Points Saved %

69.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.1%

61.5%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

28.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Pablo Varillas 0 – 0 Jan Kumstat

Clay Como challenger · 2026-08-31

1. round

Juan Pablo Varillas #234

Jan Kumstat #186

6-4 6-3

3 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 3

57 Service Points 61

32 First Serve In 29

27 First Serve Won 21

17 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.5 Average Odds 1.3

Juan Pablo Varillas vs Jan Kumstat — Prediction