ATP tennis predict — Juan Pablo Varillas vs Francesco Forti

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

56.29%

Francesco Forti

Italy

43.71%

Average Odds

1.82 / 1.90

Market probability

51.08% / 48.92%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Pablo Varillas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1648 vs 1583), a higher Elo rating (1630 vs 1560) and more wins on clay courts (52 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1630.1 Elo 1560.4

1648.1 Elo (surface) 1582.7

213 Wins (Challenger) 92

210 Wins (surface) 74

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.020 Dominance ratio 1.140

148 Rank 378

30.8 Age 27.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Francesco Forti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–5L · 58.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Pablo Varillas Francesco Forti

1st Serve In %

56.6%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

67.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

37.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

21.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.56

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.7%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

73.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

37.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.6%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Pablo Varillas Francesco Forti

Break Points Saved %

69.0%

40.0%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

21.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.1%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

45.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Pablo Varillas 0 – 0 Francesco Forti

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-27

qualification - round of 16

Juan Pablo Varillas #274

Francesco Forti #371

6-4 3-6 7-6

10 Aces 10

1 Double Faults 1

113 Service Points 115

72 First Serve In 65

52 First Serve Won 42

18 Second Serve Won 27

5 Break Points Saved 6

9 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Juan Pablo Varillas vs Francesco Forti — Prediction