ATP tennis predict — Juan Manuel La Serna vs Mykyta Mashtakov

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · R16 12:30

Predicted probability

Juan Manuel La Serna

Argentina

69.17%

Mykyta Mashtakov

Ukraine

30.83%

Average Odds

1.37 / 2.89

Market probability

67.84% / 32.16%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Manuel La Serna is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1635 vs 1529), a higher Elo rating (1614 vs 1528) and more wins on clay courts (42 vs 6).

Player Comparison

1613.6 Elo 1527.7

1635.4 Elo (surface) 1528.9

44 Wins (Challenger) 6

42 Wins (surface) 6

10 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.804 Dominance ratio 0.881

289 Rank 576

22.6 Age 27.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Manuel La Serna

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Mykyta Mashtakov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel La Serna Mykyta Mashtakov

1st Serve In %

64.7%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

57.6%

51.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.7%

14.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

20.0%

36.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.00

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.1%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

45.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

37.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel La Serna Mykyta Mashtakov

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

46.2%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.5%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

27.7%

47.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Manuel La Serna 0 – 0 Mykyta Mashtakov

Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 2026-09-03

R16

Juan Manuel La Serna #289

Mykyta Mashtakov #576

6-2 6-4

1 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 4

58 Service Points 49

36 First Serve In 27

17 First Serve Won 21

9 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Juan Manuel La Serna vs Mykyta Mashtakov — Prediction