ATP tennis predict — Juan Manuel La Serna vs Lukas Neumayer

Challenger Clay Tulln challenger · R16 13:00

Predicted probability

Juan Manuel La Serna

Argentina

35.44%

Lukas Neumayer

Austria

64.56%

Average Odds

3.33 / 1.30

Market probability

28.08% / 71.92%

Why This Prediction?

Lukas Neumayer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1722 vs 1680), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1720 vs 1689) and more wins on clay courts (106 vs 44).

Player Comparison

1679.8 Elo 1722.1

1688.6 Elo (surface) 1719.8

46 Wins (Challenger) 116

44 Wins (surface) 106

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.855 Dominance ratio 0.846

289 Rank 191

22.6 Age 24.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Manuel La Serna

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Lukas Neumayer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel La Serna Lukas Neumayer

1st Serve In %

64.7%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

57.6%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.7%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

20.0%

53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.1%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

35.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

39.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel La Serna Lukas Neumayer

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.5%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

27.7%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Manuel La Serna 0 – 0 Lukas Neumayer

Clay Tulln challenger · 2026-09-10

R16

Lukas Neumayer #191

Juan Manuel La Serna #289

7-5 6-7 6-1

2 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

41 First Serve Won 43

14 Second Serve Won 24

7 Break Points Saved 3

14 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Juan Manuel La Serna vs Lukas Neumayer — Prediction