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Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Sebastian Baez — Prediction

ATP Hard Winston Salem · R16 22:00

Predicted probability

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Argentina

57.18%

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

42.82%

Average Odds

2.18  /  1.65

Market probability

43.08%  /  56.92%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Manuel Cerundolo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1833 vs 1787), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1641 vs 1602) and a stronger serve (66.7% vs 59.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1832.9 Elo 1786.6
1640.7 Elo (surface) 1601.8
82 Wins 147
15 Wins (surface) 40
9 Last 15 form 7
0 Head-to-head wins 3
1.077 Dominance ratio 0.783
51 Rank 50
24.8 Age 25.7
left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo Sebastian Baez

1st Serve In %

55.7%
63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%
59.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.6%
50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.1%
22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%
49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.46
0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34
0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.1%
66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.3%
74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%
57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%
38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%
57.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.30
0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14
0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo Sebastian Baez

Break Points Saved %

63.6%
52.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%
36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.1%
57.1%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%
43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Manuel Cerundolo 0 – 3 Sebastian Baez

Hard Winston Salem · 2026-08-26

R16

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #51

Sebastian Baez #50

6-2 4-0
2 Aces 0
2 Double Faults 1
38 Service Points 40
15 First Serve In 25
13 First Serve Won 12
13 Second Serve Won 4
3 Break Points Saved 4
4 Break Points Faced 9
0 Winners 0
0 Unforced Errors 0
2.2 Average Odds 1.6
Clay Buenos Aires CH · 2021-10-18

SF

Sebastian Baez #124

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #102

6-1 6-2
0 Aces 0
0 Double Faults 1
44 Service Points 40
35 First Serve In 32
26 First Serve Won 13
6 Second Serve Won 3
0 Break Points Saved 3
1 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Santiago 2 CH · 2021-10-11

QF

Sebastian Baez #138

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #102

6-3 6-4
1 Aces 0
1 Double Faults 2
61 Service Points 81
50 First Serve In 58
31 First Serve Won 32
4 Second Serve Won 6
6 Break Points Saved 8
9 Break Points Faced 14
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Campinas CH · 2020-11-30

Q2

Sebastian Baez #316

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #339

6-4 7-5
- Aces -
- Double Faults -
- Service Points -
- First Serve In -
- First Serve Won -
- Second Serve Won -
- Break Points Saved -
- Break Points Faced -
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Juan Manuel Cerundolo — Last 10

L L W W L W W L W L

Sebastian Baez — Last 10

L L W L L W W W L W