ATP tennis predict — Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Nicolas Mejia

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Argentina

65.09%

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

34.91%

Average Odds

1.46 / 2.67

Market probability

64.65% / 35.35%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Manuel Cerundolo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1917 vs 1792), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1753 vs 1666) and a stronger serve (66.6% vs 61.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1917.0 Elo 1791.9

1753.0 Elo (surface) 1666.3

84 Wins 23

17 Wins (surface) 13

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.176 Dominance ratio 1.066

55 Rank 119

24.9 Age 26.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Nicolas Mejia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo Nicolas Mejia

1st Serve In %

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.2%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.1%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.3%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo Nicolas Mejia

Break Points Saved %

67.3%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%

32.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.1%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Nicolas Mejia have never played each other.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Nicolas Mejia — Prediction