ATP tennis predict — Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud

ATP Clay Gstaad · QF

Predicted probability

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Argentina

38.77%

Casper Ruud

Norway

61.23%

Average Odds

3.43 / 1.31

Market probability

27.64% / 72.36%

Why This Prediction?

Casper Ruud is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1938 vs 1830), a stronger serve (67.2% vs 63.6% of service points won) and a stronger return game (39.0% vs 32.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1832.1 Elo 1879.6

1829.6 Elo (surface) 1937.7

77 Wins 350

64 Wins (surface) 190

10 Last 15 form 12

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.893 Dominance ratio 1.189

45 Rank 13

24.7 Age 27.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Casper Ruud

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo Casper Ruud

1st Serve In %

55.7%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%

73.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.6%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.1%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

50.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.1%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.3%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

56.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo Casper Ruud

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

71.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

38.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.1%

53.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1 – 0 Casper Ruud

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-05

2. round

Casper Ruud #14

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #52

6-1 6-2

2 Aces 0

5 Double Faults 3

45 Service Points 36

28 First Serve In 15

23 First Serve Won 9

10 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 5

22 Winners 7

16 Unforced Errors 18

1.4 Average Odds 3.1

Clay Gstaad · 2026-07-17

QF

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #45

Casper Ruud #13

3-6 7-5 6-2

2 Aces 4

6 Double Faults 2

85 Service Points 83

46 First Serve In 54

38 First Serve Won 38

17 Second Serve Won 15

4 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 8

18 Winners 32

33 Unforced Errors 47

3.4 Average Odds 1.3

Clay Gstaad · 2025-07-14

QF

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #109

Casper Ruud #13

6-2 1-6 6-3

3 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 0

87 Service Points 79

55 First Serve In 54

34 First Serve Won 33

12 Second Serve Won 9

10 Break Points Saved 3

15 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud — Prediction