ATP tennis predict — Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Carlos Alcaraz

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Argentina

12.97%

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

87.03%

Average Odds

13.52 / 1.03

Market probability

7.08% / 92.92%

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2305 vs 1771), a higher Elo rating (2391 vs 1924) and a stronger return game (41.1% vs 39.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1924.3 Elo 2391.1

1771.0 Elo (surface) 2304.8

85 Wins 322

18 Wins (surface) 174

7 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.176 Dominance ratio 1.041

55 Rank 3

24.9 Age 23.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Carlos Alcaraz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 10W–1L · 90.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo Carlos Alcaraz

1st Serve In %

56.2%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.7%

61.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.5%

43.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

31.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

36.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.1%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.3%

68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%

54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

54.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo Carlos Alcaraz

Break Points Saved %

66.0%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

38.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.1%

51.8%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

53.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Manuel Cerundolo 0 – 1 Carlos Alcaraz

Hard NextGen Finals · 2021-11-08

RR

Carlos Alcaraz #32

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #91

4-0 4-1 2-4 4-3(3)

2 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 2

70 Service Points 59

53 First Serve In 43

39 First Serve Won 30

9 Second Serve Won 7

9 Break Points Saved 2

10 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Carlos Alcaraz — Prediction