ATP tennis predict — Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Arthur Gea

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Argentina

37.35%

Arthur Gea

France

62.65%

Average Odds

2.00 / 1.81

Market probability

47.51% / 52.49%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Gea is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1774 vs 1636), more wins on hard courts (21 vs 8) and better recent form (10 wins in his last 15 matches vs 8).

Player Comparison

1829.5 Elo 1764.6

1636.3 Elo (surface) 1773.9

83 Wins 19

16 Wins (surface) 15

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.172 Dominance ratio 0.989

45 Rank 87

24.8 Age 21.7

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo Arthur Gea

1st Serve In %

55.7%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%

68.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.6%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.1%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

50.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.1%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.3%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo Arthur Gea

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.1%

45.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Manuel Cerundolo 0 – 0 Arthur Gea

Hard US Open · 2026-09-01

1. round

Arthur Gea #87

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #45

6-3 2-6 3-6 6-3 6-1

5 Aces 7

8 Double Faults 8

123 Service Points 134

61 First Serve In 80

41 First Serve Won 62

33 Second Serve Won 22

5 Break Points Saved 9

12 Break Points Faced 14

32 Winners 36

51 Unforced Errors 48

1.8 Average Odds 2

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Arthur Gea — Prediction