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Juan Cruz Martin Manzano vs Matthew William Donald — Prediction

Challenger Clay Bari challenger · SF 15:00

Predicted probability

Matthew William Donald

Czech Republic

49.06%

Average Odds

1.74  /  2.00

Market probability

53.48%  /  46.52%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1668.6 Elo 1696.1
1672.7 Elo (surface) 1690.0
19 Wins (Challenger) 20
19 Wins (surface) 17
8 Last 15 form 9
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.960 Dominance ratio 0.766
426 Rank 460
21.8 Age 21.9
left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–7L · 41.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Matthew William Donald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Matthew William Donald

1st Serve In %

56.8%
—

1st Serve Points Won %

58.0%
—

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%
—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%
—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.3%
—

Aces per Service Game

0.07
—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40
—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—
65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

—
61.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—
38.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—
26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—
46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.11
0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19
0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Matthew William Donald

Break Points Saved %

37.5%
—

Break Points Converted %

75.0%
—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.7%
57.1%

Break Points Converted %

49.3%
51.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano and Matthew William Donald have never played each other.

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano — Last 10

W W W L W L W W L W

Matthew William Donald — Last 10

W W W W W L W L L W