ATP tennis predict — Juan Cruz Martin Manzano vs Jay Clarke

Challenger Clay Bari challenger · R16 10:30

Predicted probability

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Italy

45.99%

Jay Clarke

Great Britain

54.01%

Average Odds

2.90 / 1.37

Market probability

32.08% / 67.92%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1599.4 Elo 1674.1

1605.2 Elo (surface) 1669.5

17 Wins (Challenger) 165

17 Wins (surface) 63

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.960 Dominance ratio 0.902

426 Rank 236

21.8 Age 28.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–7L · 36.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Jay Clarke

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Jay Clarke

1st Serve In %

56.8%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

58.0%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.3%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.07

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.2%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.9%

61.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

61.3%

42.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.4%

29.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.0%

47.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Jay Clarke

Break Points Saved %

37.5%

63.7%

Break Points Converted %

75.0%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.1%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

46.1%

44.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano 0 – 0 Jay Clarke

Clay Bari challenger · 2026-09-30

R16

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano #426

Jay Clarke #236

6-4 6-4

0 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

28 First Serve Won 25

13 Second Serve Won 14

7 Break Points Saved 8

10 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.9 Average Odds 1.4

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano vs Jay Clarke — Prediction