ATP tennis predict — Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano vs Tuncay Duran

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · qualification - round of 16 09:00

Predicted probability

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Mexico

23.13%

Tuncay Duran

Turkey

76.87%

Average Odds

2.41 / 1.52

Market probability

38.68% / 61.32%

Why This Prediction?

Tuncay Duran is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1529 vs 1419), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1554 vs 1466) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1419.2 Elo 1529.2

1466.0 Elo (surface) 1554.5

34 Wins (Challenger) 8

18 Wins (surface) 8

5 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.918 Dominance ratio 0.938

471 Rank 633

27.2 Age 22.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Tuncay Duran

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano Tuncay Duran

1st Serve In %

64.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

64.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.38

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.0%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

69.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.3%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano Tuncay Duran

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano 0 – 0 Tuncay Duran

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-07

qualification - round of 16

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano #471

Tuncay Duran #633

6-4 1-6 6-3

1 Aces 12

1 Double Faults 5

74 Service Points 76

49 First Serve In 43

38 First Serve Won 32

13 Second Serve Won 16

0 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano vs Tuncay Duran — Prediction