ATP tennis predict — Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Challenger Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Mexico

58.35%

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Brazil

41.65%

Average Odds

1.53 / 2.26

Market probability

59.63% / 40.37%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1428 vs 1406), more wins on hard courts (4 vs 0) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1482 vs 1437).

Player Comparison

1428.1 Elo 1406.3

1482.1 Elo (surface) 1437.4

33 Wins (Challenger) 27

17 Wins (surface) 4

4 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.789 Dominance ratio 1.037

465 Rank 475

27.2 Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

1st Serve In %

64.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

64.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.38

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.0%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

64.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.3%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

33.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

55.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

47.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano 0 – 0 Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 2026-08-25

1. round

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos #475

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano #465

6-1 6-4

0 Aces 15

3 Double Faults 3

44 Service Points 48

24 First Serve In 32

13 First Serve Won 26

10 Second Serve Won 8

3 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.3 Average Odds 1.5

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos — Prediction