ATP tennis predict — Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano vs Nicolas Mejia

ATP Hard Los Cabos · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Mexico

19.18%

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

80.82%

Average Odds

3.97 / 1.23

Market probability

23.65% / 76.35%

Why This Prediction?

Nicolas Mejia is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1676 vs 1412), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1560 vs 1493) and a stronger return game (40.8% vs 37.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1412.1 Elo 1675.6

1493.0 Elo (surface) 1559.7

2 Wins 17

2 Wins (surface) 7

2 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 3

0.684 Dominance ratio 1.055

499 Rank 136

27.1 Age 26.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Nicolas Mejia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano Nicolas Mejia

1st Serve In %

64.8%

57.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.2%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.7%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.0%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.3%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano Nicolas Mejia

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

62.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

36.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano 1 – 3 Nicolas Mejia

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-26

qualification - round of 16

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano #605

Nicolas Mejia #120

7-5 6-2

8 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 6

65 Service Points 61

36 First Serve In 33

23 First Serve Won 25

11 Second Serve Won 16

7 Break Points Saved 1

11 Break Points Faced 2

19 Winners 9

55 Unforced Errors 23

4.0 Average Odds 1.2

Clay San Luis Potosi CH · 2026-03-30

R32

Nicolas Mejia #171

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano #489

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3

7 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 7

100 Service Points 101

63 First Serve In 57

50 First Serve Won 33

18 Second Serve Won 27

4 Break Points Saved 14

6 Break Points Faced 18

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay San Luis Potosi CH · 2025-04-14

R32

Nicolas Mejia #301

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano #522

6-3 6-2

3 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 2

57 Service Points 50

28 First Serve In 25

23 First Serve Won 17

18 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Morelia CH · 2025-03-24

R32

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano #595

Nicolas Mejia #190

6-4 3-6 6-4

4 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 3

105 Service Points 99

68 First Serve In 50

43 First Serve Won 33

20 Second Serve Won 26

4 Break Points Saved 7

7 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Los Cabos · 2021-07-19

Q1

Nicolas Mejia #301

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

6-3 3-6 7-5

7 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 0

78 Service Points 95

59 First Serve In 66

38 First Serve Won 36

13 Second Serve Won 16

0 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano vs Nicolas Mejia — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano — Last 10

Nicolas Mejia — Last 10