ATP tennis predict — Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano vs Marek Gengel

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Mexico

36.51%

Marek Gengel

Czech Republic

63.49%

Average Odds

2.21 / 1.60

Market probability

41.99% / 58.01%

Why This Prediction?

Marek Gengel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1518 vs 1408), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1552 vs 1455) and a stronger serve (66.2% vs 54.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1407.8 Elo 1518.0

1455.3 Elo (surface) 1551.6

33 Wins (Challenger) 71

17 Wins (surface) 62

4 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.827 Dominance ratio 1.296

471 Rank 390

27.2 Age 31.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Marek Gengel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano Marek Gengel

1st Serve In %

64.8%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.2%

59.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

45.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.7%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.0%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.3%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

56.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.71

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano Marek Gengel

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

63.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

43.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano 0 – 0 Marek Gengel

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-08-31

qualification - 1. round

Marek Gengel #390

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano #471

6-7 6-3 2-0

3 Aces 10

11 Double Faults 6

95 Service Points 83

52 First Serve In 55

35 First Serve Won 42

18 Second Serve Won 10

11 Break Points Saved 2

15 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano vs Marek Gengel — Prediction