ATP tennis predict — Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano vs Alan Magadan

ATP Hard Los Cabos · qualification - quarterfinal

Predicted probability

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Mexico

33.72%

Alan Magadan

Mexico

66.28%

Average Odds

2.36 / 1.55

Market probability

39.64% / 60.36%

Why This Prediction?

Alan Magadan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1594 vs 1444), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1586 vs 1522) and a stronger serve (62.2% vs 49.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1443.9 Elo 1593.6

1522.3 Elo (surface) 1585.6

3 Wins 3

3 Wins (surface) 3

3 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.699 Dominance ratio 1.098

605 Rank 603

27.1 Age 25.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Alan Magadan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano Alan Magadan

1st Serve In %

64.8%

52.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.2%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.7%

52.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.0%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

66.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.3%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

47.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano Alan Magadan

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

36.1%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano 0 – 0 Alan Magadan

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-20

1. round

Alan Magadan #561

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano #470

4-6 6-0 6-4

7 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 3

97 Service Points 107

68 First Serve In 73

43 First Serve Won 41

15 Second Serve Won 13

10 Break Points Saved 12

13 Break Points Faced 18

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-27

qualification - quarterfinal

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano #498

Alan Magadan #579

6-3 7-6

6 Aces 12

2 Double Faults 4

71 Service Points 74

43 First Serve In 36

31 First Serve Won 30

19 Second Serve Won 14

7 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.6

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano vs Alan Magadan — Prediction