ATP tennis predict — Jozef Kovalik vs Gabriele Piraino

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Jozef Kovalik

Slovakia

76.46%

Gabriele Piraino

Italy

23.54%

Average Odds

1.60 / 2.21

Market probability

58.01% / 41.99%

Why This Prediction?

Jozef Kovalik is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1659 vs 1452), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1667 vs 1447) and more wins on clay courts (217 vs 23).

Player Comparison

1658.7 Elo 1451.8

1667.2 Elo (surface) 1447.1

236 Wins (Challenger) 29

217 Wins (surface) 23

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.180 Dominance ratio 0.959

885 Rank 368

33.7 Age 22.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jozef Kovalik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Gabriele Piraino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jozef Kovalik Gabriele Piraino

1st Serve In %

59.9%

63.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.0%

55.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

40.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.00

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.8%

57.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

58.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.2%

40.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.2%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jozef Kovalik Gabriele Piraino

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

42.9%

Break Points Converted %

27.8%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.0%

50.6%

Break Points Converted %

48.4%

49.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jozef Kovalik 0 – 0 Gabriele Piraino

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-26

qualification - 1. round

Jozef Kovalik #-

Gabriele Piraino #444

2-6 7-6 7-5

6 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 6

98 Service Points 100

52 First Serve In 62

37 First Serve Won 49

29 Second Serve Won 18

3 Break Points Saved 1

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Jozef Kovalik vs Gabriele Piraino — Prediction