ATP tennis predict — Joshua Sheehy vs Renta Tokuda

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Joshua Sheehy

USA

37.68%

Renta Tokuda

Japan

62.32%

Average Odds

2.35 / 1.54

Market probability

39.59% / 60.41%

Why This Prediction?

Renta Tokuda is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1453 vs 1386), a stronger return game (40.0% vs 34.4% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating (1447 vs 1424).

Player Comparison

1423.9 Elo 1446.6

1386.0 Elo (surface) 1453.1

28 Wins (Challenger) 53

21 Wins (surface) 51

6 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.788 Dominance ratio 1.198

654 Rank 466

29.5 Age 28.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joshua Sheehy

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Renta Tokuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joshua Sheehy Renta Tokuda

1st Serve In %

—

64.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

60.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

59.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

24.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

66.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.6%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.5%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joshua Sheehy Renta Tokuda

Break Points Saved %

—

41.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.5%

67.9%

Break Points Converted %

24.5%

32.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joshua Sheehy 0 – 0 Renta Tokuda

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-27

qualification - 1. round

Renta Tokuda #456

Joshua Sheehy #649

4-6 7-6 7-5

16 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 3

111 Service Points 120

61 First Serve In 80

46 First Serve Won 54

30 Second Serve Won 26

7 Break Points Saved 6

8 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Joshua Sheehy vs Renta Tokuda — Prediction