ATP tennis predict — Joshua Charlton vs Takuya Kumasaka

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · qualification - 1. round 05:00

Predicted probability

Joshua Charlton

Australia

44.52%

Takuya Kumasaka

Japan

55.48%

Average Odds

2.38 / 1.53

Market probability

39.13% / 60.87%

Why This Prediction?

Takuya Kumasaka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1457 vs 1449), a stronger return game (39.2% vs 30.2% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating (1444 vs 1431).

Player Comparison

1431.2 Elo 1444.5

1449.2 Elo (surface) 1456.9

9 Wins (Challenger) 24

9 Wins (surface) 24

5 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.905 Dominance ratio 1.239

746 Rank 540

27.1 Age 27.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joshua Charlton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-08-30.

Takuya Kumasaka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joshua Charlton Takuya Kumasaka

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

65.3%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

53.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.2%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joshua Charlton Takuya Kumasaka

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

29.2%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joshua Charlton 0 – 0 Takuya Kumasaka

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-08-30

qualification - 1. round

Joshua Charlton #755

Takuya Kumasaka #548

6-3 6-4

2 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 4

85 Service Points 55

63 First Serve In 32

41 First Serve Won 25

15 Second Serve Won 10

9 Break Points Saved 6

9 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Joshua Charlton vs Takuya Kumasaka — Prediction