ATP tennis predict — Johannus Monday vs Yuta Shimizu

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Johannus Monday

Great Britain

38.76%

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

61.24%

Average Odds

1.75 / 1.98

Market probability

53.08% / 46.92%

Why This Prediction?

Yuta Shimizu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1619 vs 1540), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1617 vs 1513) and more wins on hard courts (128 vs 39).

Player Comparison

1539.6 Elo 1618.5

1512.6 Elo (surface) 1617.1

44 Wins (Challenger) 129

39 Wins (surface) 128

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.156 Dominance ratio 1.202

315 Rank 383

24.5 Age 27.1

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Johannus Monday

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Yuta Shimizu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Johannus Monday Yuta Shimizu

1st Serve In %

60.4%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.5%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.1%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.69

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.0%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.7%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

54.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Johannus Monday Yuta Shimizu

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

39.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.8%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Johannus Monday 0 – 0 Yuta Shimizu

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-23

R16

Johannus Monday #315

Yuta Shimizu #383

4-6 6-3 6-3

6 Aces 4

8 Double Faults 7

91 Service Points 88

50 First Serve In 52

37 First Serve Won 33

21 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 8

5 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Johannus Monday vs Yuta Shimizu — Prediction