ATP tennis predict — Johan Nikles vs Matej Dodig

Challenger Clay Como challenger · SF 17:30

Predicted probability

Johan Nikles

Switzerland

36.33%

Matej Dodig

Croatia

63.67%

Average Odds

4.57 / 1.17

Market probability

20.38% / 79.62%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1668 vs 1595), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1693 vs 1628) and a stronger serve (66.5% vs 57.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1595.3 Elo 1667.8

1628.2 Elo (surface) 1692.6

59 Wins (Challenger) 80

51 Wins (surface) 60

10 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.041 Dominance ratio 1.004

424 Rank 254

29.4 Age 21.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Johan Nikles

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Johan Nikles Matej Dodig

1st Serve In %

60.7%

65.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

58.9%

70.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

45.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.10

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.3%

64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.6%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

42.4%

24.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.9%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Johan Nikles Matej Dodig

Break Points Saved %

57.0%

61.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.1%

31.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

51.6%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Johan Nikles 0 – 0 Matej Dodig

Clay Como challenger · 2026-09-05

SF

Matej Dodig #254

Johan Nikles #424

6-3 6-0

1 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 0

46 Service Points 36

28 First Serve In 28

14 First Serve Won 24

7 Second Serve Won 5

1 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.6

Johan Nikles vs Matej Dodig — Prediction