ATP tennis predict — Johan Nikles vs Alex Barrena

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Johan Nikles

Switzerland

44.67%

Alex Barrena

Argentina

55.33%

Average Odds

3.03 / 1.34

Market probability

30.66% / 69.34%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Barrena is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1567 vs 1555), a stronger serve (59.7% vs 54.3% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1535 vs 1523).

Player Comparison

1522.6 Elo 1535.1

1555.4 Elo (surface) 1566.7

54 Wins (Challenger) 75

46 Wins (surface) 75

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.913 Dominance ratio 0.922

412 Rank 264

29.4 Age 23.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Johan Nikles

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Johan Nikles Alex Barrena

1st Serve In %

60.7%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

58.9%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.10

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.3%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

54.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.6%

40.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

42.4%

38.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.9%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Johan Nikles Alex Barrena

Break Points Saved %

57.0%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.1%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

51.6%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Johan Nikles 0 – 0 Alex Barrena

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Alex Barrena #264

Johan Nikles #412

3-6 6-3 6-3

0 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 1

93 Service Points 92

55 First Serve In 57

37 First Serve Won 35

17 Second Serve Won 23

5 Break Points Saved 6

9 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.0

Johan Nikles vs Alex Barrena — Prediction