ATP tennis predict — Joel Schwaerzler vs Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Challenger Hard Mouilleron-Le-Captif challenger · SF 14:30

Predicted probability

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

49.97%

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

France

50.03%

Average Odds

2.23 / 1.60

Market probability

41.78% / 58.22%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1727.7 Elo 1771.0

1750.5 Elo (surface) 1789.3

76 Wins (Challenger) 67

21 Wins (surface) 47

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.172 Dominance ratio 0.956

185 Rank 218

20.7 Age 23.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–8L · 38.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

1st Serve In %

58.3%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.2%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.9%

45.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.0%

28.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

17.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

21.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

38.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

66.3%

Break Points Converted %

27.1%

28.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.6%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.6%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joel Schwaerzler and Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg have never played each other.

Joel Schwaerzler vs Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg — Prediction