ATP tennis predict — Joel Schwaerzler vs Maxim Mrva

Challenger Clay Liberec challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

43.85%

Maxim Mrva

Czech Republic

56.15%

Average Odds

1.76 / 1.97

Market probability

52.82% / 47.18%

Why This Prediction?

Maxim Mrva is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1621 vs 1557), a higher Elo rating (1631 vs 1564) and a stronger return game (44.4% vs 38.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1564.4 Elo 1631.3

1556.7 Elo (surface) 1620.6

66 Wins (Challenger) 42

54 Wins (surface) 27

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.988 Dominance ratio 1.115

183 Rank 304

20.5 Age 19.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Maxim Mrva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–3L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Maxim Mrva

1st Serve In %

58.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.2%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.32

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

61.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

40.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Maxim Mrva

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

—

Break Points Converted %

27.1%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

47.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joel Schwaerzler 0 – 0 Maxim Mrva

Clay Liberec challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Joel Schwaerzler #183

Maxim Mrva #304

6-3 6-4

1 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 5

56 Service Points 53

35 First Serve In 24

30 First Serve Won 18

12 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Joel Schwaerzler vs Maxim Mrva — Prediction