ATP tennis predict — Joel Schwaerzler vs Kenta Miyoshi

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · 1. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

50.57%

Kenta Miyoshi

Japan

49.43%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.19

Market probability

57.63% / 42.37%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1638.3 Elo 1688.5

1714.7 Elo (surface) 1689.1

72 Wins (Challenger) 30

17 Wins (surface) 30

8 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.278 Dominance ratio 1.200

150 Rank -

20.6 Age 22.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Kenta Miyoshi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Kenta Miyoshi

1st Serve In %

58.3%

45.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

66.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.2%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

36.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Kenta Miyoshi

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

42.9%

Break Points Converted %

27.1%

23.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

56.7%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joel Schwaerzler 0 – 0 Kenta Miyoshi

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-19

1. round

Kenta Miyoshi #-

Joel Schwaerzler #150

6-2 7-5

0 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 4

72 Service Points 64

32 First Serve In 26

22 First Serve Won 20

18 Second Serve Won 25

4 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Joel Schwaerzler vs Kenta Miyoshi — Prediction