ATP tennis predict — Joel Schwaerzler vs Jurij Rodionov

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · 1. round

Predicted probability

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

43.67%

Jurij Rodionov

Austria

56.33%

Average Odds

2.31 / 1.60

Market probability

40.92% / 59.08%

Why This Prediction?

Jurij Rodionov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1659 vs 1578), a stronger serve (64.7% vs 61.7% of service points won) and fewer double faults per game (0.12 vs 0.13).

Player Comparison

1578.2 Elo 1659.3

1577.3 Elo (surface) 1557.2

1 Wins 64

1 Wins (surface) 29

1 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.780 Dominance ratio 0.950

185 Rank 145

20.5 Age 27.2

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jurij Rodionov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Jurij Rodionov

1st Serve In %

58.3%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

72.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.2%

43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

47.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Jurij Rodionov

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

64.9%

Break Points Converted %

27.1%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

31.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joel Schwaerzler 0 – 1 Jurij Rodionov

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-20

1. round

Jurij Rodionov #145

Joel Schwaerzler #185

6-4 6-2

3 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 2

50 Service Points 56

29 First Serve In 27

20 First Serve Won 22

11 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 1

19 Winners 16

27 Unforced Errors 18

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Clay Bonn CH · 2025-08-04

SF

Jurij Rodionov #185

Joel Schwaerzler #342

1-6 6-2 6-4

3 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

74 Service Points 78

43 First Serve In 44

31 First Serve Won 36

18 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Joel Schwaerzler vs Jurij Rodionov — Prediction