ATP tennis predict — Joel Schwaerzler vs Ilya Ivashka

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · QF 13:30

Predicted probability

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

50.96%

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

49.04%

Average Odds

2.19 / 1.62

Market probability

42.52% / 57.48%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1603.4 Elo 1659.7

1690.0 Elo (surface) 1676.7

69 Wins (Challenger) 131

14 Wins (surface) 115

8 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.112 Dominance ratio 0.992

182 Rank 402

20.5 Age 32.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Ilya Ivashka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Ilya Ivashka

1st Serve In %

58.3%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.2%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

55.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Ilya Ivashka

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

27.1%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

51.1%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joel Schwaerzler 0 – 0 Ilya Ivashka

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-07

QF

Joel Schwaerzler #182

Ilya Ivashka #402

7-6 6-4

10 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 5

75 Service Points 79

50 First Serve In 47

37 First Serve Won 35

14 Second Serve Won 12

7 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Joel Schwaerzler vs Ilya Ivashka — Prediction