ATP tennis predict — Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

64.99%

Gustavo Heide

Brazil

35.01%

Average Odds

1.85 / 1.85

Market probability

50.00% / 50.00%

Why This Prediction?

Joel Schwaerzler is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1679 vs 1437), a stronger serve (70.2% vs 59.9% of service points won) and a stronger return game (39.7% vs 38.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1621.8 Elo 1690.1

1679.2 Elo (surface) 1436.6

1 Wins 15

0 Wins (surface) 2

1 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.827 Dominance ratio 1.060

150 Rank 133

20.6 Age 24.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Gustavo Heide

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-20.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Gustavo Heide

1st Serve In %

58.3%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

73.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.2%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

60.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

65.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

53.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Gustavo Heide

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

27.1%

27.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

32.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joel Schwaerzler 0 – 0 Gustavo Heide

Hard US Open · 2026-08-24

qualification - 1. round

Joel Schwaerzler #171

Gustavo Heide #128

2-6 6-4 6-4

7 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 8

75 Service Points 96

45 First Serve In 43

35 First Serve Won 31

17 Second Serve Won 28

2 Break Points Saved 11

5 Break Points Faced 14

30 Winners 18

33 Unforced Errors 32

1.9 Average Odds 1.9

Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide — Prediction