ATP tennis predict — Joel Schwaerzler vs Aziz Dougaz

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · R16 13:30

Predicted probability

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

54.74%

Aziz Dougaz

Tunisia

45.26%

Average Odds

1.81 / 1.92

Market probability

51.47% / 48.53%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1586.1 Elo 1578.5

1665.4 Elo (surface) 1575.6

68 Wins (Challenger) 81

13 Wins (surface) 59

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.107 Dominance ratio 1.002

182 Rank 690

20.5 Age 29.4

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Aziz Dougaz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Aziz Dougaz

1st Serve In %

58.3%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

44.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.2%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Aziz Dougaz

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

50.8%

Break Points Converted %

27.1%

46.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

57.6%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

51.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joel Schwaerzler 0 – 0 Aziz Dougaz

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-06

R16

Joel Schwaerzler #182

Aziz Dougaz #690

7-6 3-6 7-6

9 Aces 12

5 Double Faults 4

110 Service Points 88

67 First Serve In 54

53 First Serve Won 48

26 Second Serve Won 23

3 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Joel Schwaerzler vs Aziz Dougaz — Prediction