ATP tennis predict — Joel Schwaerzler vs Andres Andrade

Challenger Hard Brownsburg challenger · 1. round 18:10

Predicted probability

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

74.04%

Andres Andrade

Ecuador

25.96%

Average Odds

1.59 / 2.24

Market probability

58.49% / 41.51%

Why This Prediction?

Joel Schwaerzler is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1764 vs 1530), a higher Elo rating (1662 vs 1535) and a stronger serve (69.0% vs 58.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1661.9 Elo 1535.1

1764.3 Elo (surface) 1529.9

72 Wins (Challenger) 68

17 Wins (surface) 33

9 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.258 Dominance ratio 0.973

182 Rank 251

20.5 Age 27.7

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Andres Andrade

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Andres Andrade

1st Serve In %

58.3%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

70.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.2%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Joel Schwaerzler Andres Andrade

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

80.0%

Break Points Converted %

27.1%

55.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

45.6%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

35.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Joel Schwaerzler 1 – 0 Andres Andrade

Hard Brownsburg challenger · 2026-08-13

1. round

Andres Andrade #251

Joel Schwaerzler #182

6-3 6-7 7-5

4 Aces 4

6 Double Faults 3

97 Service Points 113

61 First Serve In 67

42 First Serve Won 46

12 Second Serve Won 23

1 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Clay Buenos Aires Tigre CH · 2025-01-13

R32

Joel Schwaerzler #330

Andres Andrade #243

7-5 6-4

2 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 4

74 Service Points 65

47 First Serve In 35

31 First Serve Won 24

14 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Joel Schwaerzler vs Andres Andrade — Prediction